As much as it might piss off Kylie Jenner and Kim Kardashian, Instagram's decision to lean-in on Reels is going to pay off.
I too relish in the memory of Instagram when it was a pretty one-dimensional platform for seeing your friends doing suspiciously cool stuff in an annoying 1:1 aspect ratio. It was limited, but it was efficient. That age feels like lightyears ago trying to navigate today's labyrinth of Reels, sponsored content, and friends' photos in the current app layout, which I don't think anyone is particular thrilled with. But Meta is not in a position to be able to let its social media business flail. All of Zuckerberg's financial and strategic eggs are going into the metaverse basket, and even if that ever does pay off, we're probably talking closer to a 10-year return on investment than a two-year return on investment.
So until that 10-year mark hits (once again, if it ever hits), Meta has to continue finding new ways to milk the cash cow it already has on hand. Consumers have sent a clear signal that they are devoting a bigger share of their attention to short-form videos, as TikTok has been downloaded over 300 million times in the US. Anyone who can honestly look at this market signal next to Zuckerberg's reliance on Instagram's continued success to fund his erotic metaverse fantasies and not conclude that Reels will become Instagram's future is just hopelessly clinging to the Instagram they once knew and loved.
The truth of the matter is, even if people can crap on Reels today and call it "TikTok, but four weeks later," they're going to continue using it. TikTok's recommendation algorithm is untouchable, but let's not pretend like over the past six years we haven't all learned how dangerously good Meta's content algorithms can be too. People might ask, "Why would anyone use a TikTok copy like Instagram Reels when they can just use TikTok?" The answer is: for the same reason people started using Instagram Stories even when they could have just used Snapchat. Instagram has over 47% more monthly active users than TikTok, and people like posting content wherever it will get the most eyes. Instagram's massive user base will always be a draw to get content creators to try out new features on Instagram, which quickly drives adoption of features like Reels.
And let's not forget there's a very realistic chance that TikTok at some point does get actually banned in the US. I wouldn't call it a good chance, but if that happens, Instagram has to be ready to feast on the carcass.
It's a worthy cause to make Instagram Instagram again. But I don't think Instagram will ever be Instagram again.
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