The recently announced Samsung Z Flip 3 and Z Fold 3 are perhaps the first foldable phones with a realistic shot of reaching the mainstream consumer. They've both got a lower price tag, better durability, and an inherent cool factor that makes you want to actually pick them up and play with them, a rare feat in hardware nowadays. They're absolutely mesmerizing to look at.
By almost any metric, the proof-of-concept of foldable phones is complete. And I still don't see it taking off.
This isn't because of any part of the technology involved itself. The hardware appears durable enough to live through normal wear-and-tear, and I don't think having a crease in the screen, as unsightly as it is, is really that big of a deal. After all, our eyes adjusted just fine to notches.
My biggest concern is I think it's going to be extremely difficult for any company to nail both the phone sizing and the intended use case for the phone given that sizing. Take the Z Flip 3 for example. The screen size is 6.7", virtually the same as the iPhone 12 Pro Max. The foldability doesn't get you any more screen real estate. So why the flip does it have to fold? You really only have two consumers to target: people who buy jeans with extremely shallow yet thick pockets who are dying for a properly fitting smartphone, and those who just want a folding phone because it's cool. Neither of those are super scalable business models.
The Z Fold 3, boasting a larger 7.6" display, follows through on the foldable phone's promise of offering more screen real estate. But there's a reason the iPad mini has only received one hardware update in the last six years: the market has spoken, and it doesn't love sub-eight-inch tablets. It's a user experience purgatory of being far too large to use with one hand but still too small to use both hands without your fingers playing tag with each other. There is definitely a consumer that would pay for this extra inch of screen space. Anyone that's ever been stuck at the airport can image how much nicer watching Netflix or playing Clash of Clans on this screen would be compared to a normal smartphone screen. But I'm not convinced the average consumer will pay $1,800 for a great smartphone and an only okay tablet when they can get a great iPhone and, if they want, a great full-sized iPad for hundreds of dollars less. Sometimes having two devices that each do one job well is better than having one device that does two things poorly.
And do people really want to now have a smartphone that's twice as thick as a normal smartphone in their pocket? Isn't there a reason we've trended so clearly toward thinner smartphones: because people don't like carrying around bulky devices?
To be fair, I've never used a foldable phone, and there's absolutely a chance I try these new Samsung phones out for the first time and fall in love. And I absolutely believe foldable glass will still be a vital technology shaping future hardware. But as absolutely eye-capturing as these phones look, I'm not anticipating a mass exodus to Samsung.
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