I was pretty shocked the other day when I saw Facebook was shutting down its podcast service, not because the decision surprised me, but because I had no idea Facebook had a podcast service.
It's becomingly pretty clear that tech companies are about to enter at breakneck speed into a race to become America's "super app," that being a single app that contains an entire ecosystem of common functions like messaging, shopping, payment, and transportation, similar to what WeChat is for China. Arguably the most valuable asset in the world is consumer attention, and any company that can get their customers to live their entire digital lives inside their own ecosystem is going to see ridiculous shareholder gains over the next decade whether that ends up being Google, TikTok, Uber, Airbnb, or any of the other dozen players that at least have a shot at this.
I say with pretty high confidence that no other company in America from a product standpoint is in a better position to execute this super app concept than Meta. They already own the leading messaging platform in the world in WhatsApp, have very quickly grown a digital storefront in Marketplace, command a somewhat embarrassing amount of consumer attention in Instagram, allow for peer-to-peer payments through their Facebook Pay system, and offer a wide range of other ecosystem services from dating to gaming. The truth of the matter, though, is that it's not working. Just as I had never heard a peep from this Facebook podcast service before it shut down, I have never in my life heard someone reference Facebook Pay. Instagram is getting its digital keister handed to it by TikTok. I'm not sure WhatsApp has seen an exciting product innovation in years (hence why it still has to use end-to-end encryption as its primary selling point). And Marketplace, while ridiculously useful for buying mostly clean futons, still feels more like a craigslist than an Amazon. The formula Meta is using isn't the correct formula.
Which begs the question, "So what is the correct formula to executing the super app?" And if I actually knew the answer to this question, I'd certainly be eating much more luxurious snacks while writing this blog post than Cheez-Its and lemonade. But if I had to state three guiding principles...
The consumer demand has to be pull, not push. I don't think Americans want a super app enough at this point to be receptive to Meta marketers trying to shove one down their throat in Sponsored Instagram posts. I think the brand that will ultimately win out here is one that most consumers already have an incredibly high perception of and actively want to throw more of their digital lives under. Apple is a key example, but I would argue Airbnb and Amazon probably also command this level of loyalty and trust from their users to make this possible.
The user interface has to be stupid simple. Once again, Americans aren't inconvenienced enough with the current system to have the patience to learn a clunky new one. As much as I love Apple, I think their half-hearted attempt to turn the Messages app into a super app of sorts has failed only because the UI of using apps within Messages is inconsistent at best. Separately, most of these additional Facebook services are tucked inside the "Menu" tab, and considering most Facebook users hardly venture outside their own News Feed, I think this execution is doomed for failure too. Someone will crack this code, but I don't think anyone has figured the UI roadmap out yet.
It has to be based on messaging. For all of these companies, creating a super app inevitably means venturing into services they did not previously offer, so an important question becomes which of these services has the greatest barriers to entry. Every time I think about this question I think about how tremendously difficult it would be at this point to create a new messaging service; between texting, WhatsApp, Messenger, Snapchat, and various other social media DM inboxes, people already have way more ways to send a message to someone than they need. It feels like the space where consumers are least anxious for new players, so I think companies that already have a leg in this space are at a tremendous advantage. Put another way, I can very easily picture a world where you can book a car ride within WhatsApp, but it feels weird to think about messaging a meme to a buddy from within Uber.
So who's it going to be? From an attention-commanding standpoint, TikTok is the clear leader right now, but they're certainly lacking in the trust department. Apple could easily build each of these service capabilities, but they often perform better as the rails to these services rather than as the train itself. Snapchat could be a dark horse in the race, and maybe the capital sink hole that is Uber's current business model will be enough motivation for them to make this their long-term strategy. Who knows. All I know is it will likely be someone, and I'm excited to see everyone try to be that someone.
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